Pittsburgh Penguins at New York Rangers NHL Predictions

2024-12-06 • Madison Square Garden

New York Rangers 4 - 2 Pittsburgh Penguins

Win Probability

NYR: 59.5%

PIT: 40.5%

Expected Goals

NYR: 3.82

PIT: 3.07

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 41%

NYR

Igor Shesterkin - 16-12-4 | 0.910 SV% | 2.51 GAA

PIT

Alex Nedeljkovic - 14-15-5 | 0.894 SV% | 3.12 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYR	Igor Shesterkin	22	20	2	90.9%	2.87	1	0.87
PIT	Alex Nedeljkovic	32	28	4	87.5%	2.66	1	-1.34

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 36% • NYR at home vs PIT: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-28	NYR 3 - 2 PIT	NYR	PIT
2026-01-31	PIT 6 - 5 NYR	PIT	PIT
2025-10-11	PIT 1 - 6 NYR	NYR	PIT
2025-10-07	NYR 0 - 3 PIT	PIT	PIT
2025-02-23	PIT 3 - 5 NYR	NYR	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYR	16	1	1.07
1	PIT	12	0	0.93
2	NYR	16	0	0.97
2	PIT	14	0	1.20
3	NYR	12	0	0.62
3	PIT	12	1	0.74

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 59.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.9

Score Breakdown

New York Rangers 4 - 2 Pittsburgh Penguins

Expected: 3.8 - 3.1