Dallas Stars at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2024-12-06 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 3 - 2 Dallas Stars

Win Probability

VGK: 51.0%

DAL: 49.0%

Expected Goals

VGK: 3.16

DAL: 2.82

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 69%

Over 6.5: 54%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 69% • VGK at home vs DAL: 3-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-22	DAL 2 - 3 VGK	VGK	VGK
2026-03-10	DAL 2 - 1 VGK	DAL	VGK
2026-01-29	VGK 4 - 5 DAL	DAL	VGK
2025-01-28	VGK 3 - 4 DAL	DAL	VGK
2025-01-24	DAL 4 - 3 VGK	DAL	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	18	0	0.70
1	DAL	15	2	1.06
2	VGK	15	1	1.14
2	DAL	12	0	0.45
3	VGK	13	0	0.85
3	DAL	22	1	1.54

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 51.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Vegas Golden Knights 3 - 2 Dallas Stars

Expected: 3.2 - 2.8