Philadelphia Flyers at Minnesota Wild NHL Predictions

2024-12-14 • Xcel Energy Center

Minnesota Wild 4 - 1 Philadelphia Flyers

Win Probability

MIN: 57.7%

PHI: 42.3%

Expected Goals

MIN: 3.24

PHI: 2.78

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 54%

Over 6.5: 40%

MIN

Marc-Andre Fleury - 14-9-1 | 0.899 SV% | 2.93 GAA

PHI

Samuel Ersson - 6-5-4 | 0.868 SV% | 3.09 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MIN	Marc-Andre Fleury	22	21	1	95.5%	1.68	0	0.68
PHI	Samuel Ersson	22	18	4	81.8%	1.95	1	-2.05

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • MIN at home vs PHI: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-12	MIN 2 - 3 PHI	PHI	MIN
2025-10-18	PHI 2 - 1 MIN	PHI	PHI
2024-12-14	MIN 4 - 1 PHI	MIN	MIN
2024-10-26	PHI 7 - 5 MIN	PHI	PHI
2024-01-12	MIN 3 - 4 PHI	PHI	MIN

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MIN	11	0	0.46
1	PHI	15	0	0.86
2	MIN	12	0	0.75
2	PHI	7	0	0.53
3	MIN	7	1	0.73
3	PHI	13	0	0.29

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 57.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Minnesota Wild 4 - 1 Philadelphia Flyers

Expected: 3.2 - 2.8