Pittsburgh Penguins at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2024-12-14 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 3 - 2 Pittsburgh Penguins

Win Probability

OTT: 51.5%

PIT: 48.5%

Expected Goals

OTT: 3.44

PIT: 2.85

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 45%

OTT

Linus Ullmark - 14-8-5 | 0.881 SV% | 2.95 GAA

PIT

Tristan Jarry - 16-12-6 | 0.892 SV% | 3.12 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
OTT	Linus Ullmark	27	25	2	92.6%	2.02	1	0.02
PIT	Tristan Jarry	31	28	3	90.3%	3.10	1	0.10

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • OTT at home vs PIT: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-26	OTT 3 - 4 PIT	PIT	OTT
2026-02-02	PIT 2 - 3 OTT	OTT	PIT
2025-12-18	OTT 4 - 0 PIT	OTT	OTT
2025-03-30	PIT 1 - 0 OTT	PIT	PIT
2025-01-11	PIT 0 - 5 OTT	OTT	OTT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	13	0	0.54
1	PIT	8	0	0.53
2	OTT	16	0	1.53
2	PIT	17	0	0.91
3	OTT	13	1	0.84
3	PIT	12	1	0.59
4	OTT	2	0	0.18
4	PIT	0	0	0.00

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 51.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Ottawa Senators 3 - 2 Pittsburgh Penguins

Expected: 3.4 - 2.8