St. Louis Blues at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions
2024-12-19 • Amalie Arena
Tampa Bay Lightning 3 - 1 St. Louis Blues
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
TBL: 67.2%
STL: 32.8%
Expected Goals
TBL: 3.26
STL: 2.53
Total Goals
Median: 5.7
Over 5.5: 52%
Over 6.5: 35%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
TBL
Andrei Vasilevskiy - 28-7-3 | 0.920 SV% | 2.11 GAA
STL
Jordan Binnington - 8-17-6 | 0.864 SV% | 3.65 GAA
| Stat | TBL | STL |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.913 | 0.869 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.921 | 0.826 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.933 | 0.765 |
| GAA | 2.33 | 3.56 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 83% • TBL at home vs STL: 3-0
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-16 | STL 3 - 2 TBL | STL | TBL |
| 2025-12-22 | TBL 4 - 1 STL | TBL | TBL |
| 2024-12-19 | TBL 3 - 1 STL | TBL | TBL |
| 2024-11-05 | STL 3 - 2 TBL | STL | STL |
| 2023-12-19 | TBL 6 - 1 STL | TBL | TBL |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 05:14 | TBL | Goal |
| 2 | 03:42 | TBL | Goal |
| 2 | 12:15 | TBL | Goal |
| 2 | 13:33 | TBL | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
✅ Correct
Confidence: 67.2%
Total Goals
Actual: 4.0
Expected: 5.8
Score Breakdown
Tampa Bay Lightning 3 - 1 St. Louis Blues
Expected: 3.3 - 2.5