Ottawa Senators at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions
2024-12-19 • Scotiabank Saddledome
Calgary Flames 2 - 3 Ottawa Senators
🚨 Upset Loss (52% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
CGY: 51.8%
OTT: 48.2%
Expected Goals
CGY: 2.78
OTT: 3.63
Total Goals
Median: 6.1
Over 5.5: 62%
Over 6.5: 46%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
CGY
Dustin Wolf - 16-21-3 | 0.895 SV% | 3.00 GAA
OTT
Linus Ullmark - 16-8-5 | 0.884 SV% | 2.86 GAA
| Stat | CGY | OTT |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.901 | 0.881 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.877 | 0.882 |
| SV% vs Opponent | — | 0.897 |
| GAA | 2.82 | 2.95 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 80% • CGY at home vs OTT: 1-1
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-30 | OTT 4 - 3 CGY | OTT | OTT |
| 2024-12-19 | CGY 2 - 3 OTT | OTT | CGY |
| 2024-11-25 | OTT 4 - 3 CGY | OTT | OTT |
| 2024-01-09 | CGY 6 - 3 OTT | CGY | CGY |
| 2023-11-11 | OTT 4 - 1 CGY | OTT | OTT |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12:14 | CGY | Goal |
| 1 | 19:00 | CGY | Goal |
| 3 | 06:24 | OTT | Goal |
| 3 | 07:16 | CGY | Goal |
| 4 | 00:55 | OTT | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 51.8%
Total Goals
Actual: 5.0
Expected: 6.4
Score Breakdown
Calgary Flames 2 - 3 Ottawa Senators
Expected: 2.8 - 3.6