Washington Capitals at Detroit Red Wings NHL Predictions

2024-12-29 • Little Caesars Arena

Detroit Red Wings 4 - 2 Washington Capitals

🚨 Upset Win (50% underdog)

Win Probability

DET: 49.7%

WSH: 50.3%

Expected Goals

DET: 2.96

WSH: 3.19

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 45%

DET

Alex Lyon - 14-9-1 | 0.896 SV% | 2.81 GAA

WSH

Charlie Lindgren - 6-4-2 | 0.887 SV% | 3.07 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DET	Alex Lyon	27	25	2	92.6%	2.22	0	0.22
WSH	Charlie Lindgren	27	23	4	85.2%	3.17	1	-0.83

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • DET at home vs WSH: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-29	DET 3 - 4 WSH	WSH	WSH
2025-12-21	DET 3 - 2 WSH	DET	WSH
2025-12-20	WSH 2 - 5 DET	DET	WSH
2025-03-18	WSH 4 - 1 DET	WSH	WSH
2025-03-07	WSH 5 - 2 DET	WSH	WSH

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DET	22	0	1.71
1	WSH	9	0	0.34
2	DET	12	0	0.78
2	WSH	17	0	0.67
3	DET	9	1	0.68
3	WSH	21	0	1.22

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Detroit Red Wings 4 - 2 Washington Capitals

Expected: 3.0 - 3.2