Philadelphia Flyers at San Jose Sharks NHL Predictions

2024-12-31 • SAP Center at San Jose

San Jose Sharks 0 - 4 Philadelphia Flyers

Win Probability

SJS: 42.9%

PHI: 57.1%

Expected Goals

SJS: 3.00

PHI: 3.11

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 43%

SJS

Alexandar Georgiev - 15-26-4 | 0.875 SV% | 3.71 GAA

PHI

Samuel Ersson - 6-5-4 | 0.868 SV% | 3.09 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
SJS	Alexandar Georgiev	34	30	4	88.2%	3.23	1	-0.77
PHI	Samuel Ersson	22	22	0	100.0%	1.74	0	1.74

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • SJS at home vs PHI: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-21	SJS 1 - 4 PHI	PHI	SJS
2025-12-09	PHI 4 - 1 SJS	PHI	PHI
2024-12-31	SJS 0 - 4 PHI	PHI	PHI
2024-11-11	PHI 4 - 3 SJS	PHI	PHI
2024-03-12	PHI 3 - 2 SJS	PHI	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	SJS	9	0	0.42
1	PHI	13	0	0.69
2	SJS	12	0	0.64
2	PHI	18	1	1.63
3	SJS	10	0	0.67
3	PHI	19	0	0.91

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 57.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

San Jose Sharks 0 - 4 Philadelphia Flyers

Expected: 3.0 - 3.1