Philadelphia Flyers at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2025-01-05 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 3 - 2 Philadelphia Flyers

🚨 Upset Win (61% underdog)

Win Probability

TOR: 39.0%

PHI: 61.0%

Expected Goals

TOR: 2.65

PHI: 3.44

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 52%

Over 6.5: 41%

TOR

Dennis Hildeby - 3-5-4 | 0.912 SV% | 2.90 GAA

PHI

Ivan Fedotov - 6-13-4 | 0.880 SV% | 3.15 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TOR	Dennis Hildeby	32	30	2	93.8%	3.17	2	1.17
PHI	Ivan Fedotov	25	22	3	88.0%	3.13	2	0.13

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 44% • TOR at home vs PHI: 3-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-02	TOR 2 - 3 PHI	PHI	PHI
2026-01-08	PHI 1 - 2 TOR	TOR	PHI
2025-11-01	PHI 2 - 5 TOR	TOR	TOR
2025-03-25	TOR 7 - 2 PHI	TOR	PHI
2025-01-07	PHI 2 - 3 TOR	TOR	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	19	1	1.88
1	PHI	22	0	1.19
2	TOR	10	1	0.82
2	PHI	15	1	1.10
3	TOR	7	0	0.28
3	PHI	9	1	0.67
4	TOR	2	0	0.16
4	PHI	3	0	0.21

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 61.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 3 - 2 Philadelphia Flyers

Expected: 2.6 - 3.4