Philadelphia Flyers at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2025-01-05 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 3 - 2 Philadelphia Flyers

Win Probability

TOR: 50.4%

PHI: 49.6%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.14

PHI: 2.91

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 44%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • TOR at home vs PHI: 3-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-02	TOR 2 - 3 PHI	PHI	PHI
2026-01-08	PHI 1 - 2 TOR	TOR	PHI
2025-11-01	PHI 2 - 5 TOR	TOR	PHI
2025-03-25	TOR 7 - 2 PHI	TOR	TOR
2025-01-07	PHI 2 - 3 TOR	TOR	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	19	1	1.88
1	PHI	22	0	1.19
2	TOR	10	1	0.82
2	PHI	15	1	1.10
3	TOR	7	0	0.28
3	PHI	9	1	0.67
4	TOR	2	0	0.16
4	PHI	3	0	0.21

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 50.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 3 - 2 Philadelphia Flyers

Expected: 3.1 - 2.9