Toronto Maple Leafs at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions

2025-01-07 • Wells Fargo Center

Philadelphia Flyers 2 - 3 Toronto Maple Leafs

🚨 Upset Loss (59% underdog)

Win Probability

PHI: 59.5%

TOR: 40.5%

Expected Goals

PHI: 3.67

TOR: 2.62

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 48%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • PHI at home vs TOR: 1-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-02	TOR 2 - 3 PHI	PHI	PHI
2026-01-08	PHI 1 - 2 TOR	TOR	PHI
2025-11-01	PHI 2 - 5 TOR	TOR	PHI
2025-03-25	TOR 7 - 2 PHI	TOR	TOR
2025-01-07	PHI 2 - 3 TOR	TOR	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PHI	21	1	1.16
1	TOR	12	0	1.07
2	PHI	13	0	0.88
2	TOR	7	1	0.58
3	PHI	18	1	1.51
3	TOR	13	0	0.48

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 59.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Philadelphia Flyers 2 - 3 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 3.7 - 2.6