Ottawa Senators at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2025-01-11 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 0 - 5 Ottawa Senators

Win Probability

PIT: 40.9%

OTT: 59.1%

Expected Goals

PIT: 2.68

OTT: 3.39

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 44%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 78% • PIT at home vs OTT: 1-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-26	OTT 3 - 4 PIT	PIT	OTT
2026-02-02	PIT 2 - 3 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-12-18	OTT 4 - 0 PIT	OTT	OTT
2025-03-30	PIT 1 - 0 OTT	PIT	PIT
2025-01-11	PIT 0 - 5 OTT	OTT	OTT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	12	0	0.61
1	OTT	12	0	1.10
2	PIT	16	0	0.67
2	OTT	15	1	1.55
3	PIT	17	0	0.56
3	OTT	6	0	0.15

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 59.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Pittsburgh Penguins 0 - 5 Ottawa Senators

Expected: 2.7 - 3.4