San Jose Sharks at Detroit Red Wings NHL Predictions

2025-01-14 • Little Caesars Arena

Detroit Red Wings 3 - 6 San Jose Sharks

🚨 Upset Loss (51% underdog)

Win Probability

DET: 51.2%

SJS: 48.8%

Expected Goals

DET: 3.63

SJS: 3.08

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 54%

Over 6.5: 39%

DET

Ville Husso - 9-5-2 | 0.892 SV% | 3.55 GAA

SJS

Alexandar Georgiev - 15-26-4 | 0.875 SV% | 3.71 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DET	Ville Husso	24	18	6	75.0%	2.70	2	-3.30
SJS	Alexandar Georgiev	28	25	3	89.3%	3.69	5	0.69

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • DET at home vs SJS: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-16	DET 4 - 2 SJS	DET	DET
2025-11-02	SJS 2 - 3 DET	DET	DET
2025-01-14	DET 3 - 6 SJS	SJS	DET
2024-11-18	SJS 5 - 4 DET	SJS	DET
2024-01-02	SJS 3 - 5 DET	DET	DET

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DET	21	3	1.55
1	SJS	8	0	0.67
2	DET	13	1	0.78
2	SJS	10	0	0.54
3	DET	19	1	1.36
3	SJS	12	2	1.48

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown

Detroit Red Wings 3 - 6 San Jose Sharks

Expected: 3.6 - 3.1