Seattle Kraken at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2025-01-14 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 2 - 4 Seattle Kraken

🚨 Upset Loss (55% underdog)

Win Probability

PIT: 54.9%

SEA: 45.1%

Expected Goals

PIT: 2.96

SEA: 2.80

Total Goals

Median: 5.4

Over 5.5: 49%

Over 6.5: 38%

PIT

Tristan Jarry - 16-12-6 | 0.892 SV% | 3.12 GAA

SEA

Joey Daccord - 10-9-5 | 0.903 SV% | 2.77 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PIT	Tristan Jarry	18	14	4	77.8%	2.61	2	-1.39
SEA	Joey Daccord	33	31	2	93.9%	2.88	2	0.88

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • PIT at home vs SEA: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-19	SEA 3 - 6 PIT	PIT	PIT
2025-11-22	PIT 2 - 3 SEA	SEA	PIT
2025-01-25	SEA 4 - 1 PIT	SEA	SEA
2025-01-14	PIT 2 - 4 SEA	SEA	PIT
2024-02-29	SEA 2 - 0 PIT	SEA	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	29	2	2.11
1	SEA	8	0	0.35
2	PIT	14	0	0.40
2	SEA	14	0	0.55
3	PIT	8	0	0.37
3	SEA	12	2	1.70

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 5.8

Score Breakdown

Pittsburgh Penguins 2 - 4 Seattle Kraken

Expected: 3.0 - 2.8