Columbus Blue Jackets at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2025-01-22 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 1 - 5 Columbus Blue Jackets

🚨 Upset Loss (59% underdog)

Win Probability

TOR: 58.7%

CBJ: 41.3%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.46

CBJ: 3.21

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 45%

TOR

Dennis Hildeby - 3-5-4 | 0.912 SV% | 2.90 GAA

CBJ

Elvis Merzlikins - 6-6-1 | 0.877 SV% | 4.04 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TOR	Dennis Hildeby	19	14	5	73.7%	3.44	3	-1.56
CBJ	Elvis Merzlikins	29	28	1	96.6%	3.77	2	2.77

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 44% • TOR at home vs CBJ: 1-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-11-26	CBJ 1 - 2 TOR	TOR	CBJ
2025-11-20	TOR 2 - 3 CBJ	CBJ	TOR
2025-10-29	CBJ 6 - 3 TOR	CBJ	CBJ
2025-04-05	TOR 5 - 0 CBJ	TOR	TOR
2025-01-22	TOR 1 - 5 CBJ	CBJ	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	21	1	1.56
1	CBJ	11	1	0.96
2	TOR	14	0	1.04
2	CBJ	9	1	0.94
3	TOR	13	1	1.17
3	CBJ	9	1	1.54

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 58.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 1 - 5 Columbus Blue Jackets

Expected: 3.5 - 3.2