Columbus Blue Jackets at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2025-01-22 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 1 - 5 Columbus Blue Jackets

🚨 Upset Loss (56% underdog)

Win Probability

TOR: 56.4%

CBJ: 43.6%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.31

CBJ: 3.05

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 45%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • TOR at home vs CBJ: 1-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-11-26	CBJ 1 - 2 TOR	TOR	CBJ
2025-11-20	TOR 2 - 3 CBJ	CBJ	CBJ
2025-10-29	CBJ 6 - 3 TOR	CBJ	CBJ
2025-04-05	TOR 5 - 0 CBJ	TOR	CBJ
2025-01-22	TOR 1 - 5 CBJ	CBJ	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	21	1	1.56
1	CBJ	11	1	0.96
2	TOR	14	0	1.04
2	CBJ	9	1	0.94
3	TOR	13	1	1.17
3	CBJ	9	1	1.54

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 56.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 1 - 5 Columbus Blue Jackets

Expected: 3.3 - 3.1