Buffalo Sabres at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions

2025-01-23 • Scotiabank Saddledome

Calgary Flames 5 - 2 Buffalo Sabres

Win Probability

CGY: 53.2%

BUF: 46.8%

Expected Goals

CGY: 2.91

BUF: 3.42

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 46%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • CGY at home vs BUF: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-08	CGY 7 - 4 BUF	CGY	CGY
2025-11-19	BUF 2 - 6 CGY	CGY	BUF
2025-01-23	CGY 5 - 2 BUF	CGY	CGY
2024-11-09	BUF 3 - 2 CGY	BUF	BUF
2024-03-24	CGY 1 - 4 BUF	BUF	BUF

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CGY	13	1	1.12
1	BUF	17	0	0.60
2	CGY	12	0	0.50
2	BUF	21	1	1.30
3	CGY	16	3	2.94
3	BUF	17	1	1.59

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 53.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Calgary Flames 5 - 2 Buffalo Sabres

Expected: 2.9 - 3.4