Pittsburgh Penguins at San Jose Sharks NHL Predictions

2025-01-27 • SAP Center at San Jose

San Jose Sharks 2 - 1 Pittsburgh Penguins

🚨 Upset Win (58% underdog)

Win Probability

SJS: 42.1%

PIT: 57.9%

Expected Goals

SJS: 3.08

PIT: 3.53

Total Goals

Median: 5.5

Over 5.5: 49%

Over 6.5: 36%

SJS

Yaroslav Askarov - 15-10-1 | 0.896 SV% | 3.36 GAA

PIT

Alex Nedeljkovic - 14-15-5 | 0.894 SV% | 3.12 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
SJS	Yaroslav Askarov	30	29	1	96.7%	3.79	4	2.79
PIT	Alex Nedeljkovic	28	26	2	92.9%	2.89	1	0.89

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • SJS at home vs PIT: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-13	PIT 5 - 6 SJS	SJS	PIT
2025-10-18	SJS 0 - 3 PIT	PIT	PIT
2025-01-27	SJS 2 - 1 PIT	SJS	PIT
2024-11-16	PIT 4 - 3 SJS	PIT	PIT
2024-03-14	PIT 6 - 3 SJS	PIT	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	SJS	15	0	0.78
1	PIT	19	0	1.16
2	SJS	16	0	0.97
2	PIT	12	1	1.12
3	SJS	10	1	1.14
3	PIT	22	3	1.51

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 57.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

San Jose Sharks 2 - 1 Pittsburgh Penguins

Expected: 3.1 - 3.5