Pittsburgh Penguins at San Jose Sharks NHL Predictions
2025-01-27 • SAP Center at San Jose
San Jose Sharks 2 - 1 Pittsburgh Penguins
🚨 Upset Win (54% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
SJS: 46.1%
PIT: 53.9%
Expected Goals
SJS: 2.79
PIT: 3.43
Total Goals
Median: 6.4
Over 5.5: 57%
Over 6.5: 44%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
SJS
Yaroslav Askarov - 21-20-4 | 0.883 SV% | 3.63 GAA
PIT
Stuart Skinner - 23-17-9 | 0.888 SV% | 2.92 GAA
| Stat | SJS | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.896 | 0.888 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.862 | 0.886 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.884 | — |
| GAA | 3.36 | 2.91 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • SJS at home vs PIT: 1-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-13 | PIT 5 - 6 SJS | SJS | PIT |
| 2025-10-18 | SJS 0 - 3 PIT | PIT | PIT |
| 2025-01-27 | SJS 2 - 1 PIT | SJS | PIT |
| 2024-11-16 | PIT 4 - 3 SJS | PIT | PIT |
| 2024-03-14 | PIT 6 - 3 SJS | PIT | PIT |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 07:41 | SJS | Goal |
| 3 | 00:24 | SJS | Goal |
| 3 | 03:41 | SJS | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 53.9%
Total Goals
Actual: 3.0
Expected: 6.2
Score Breakdown
San Jose Sharks 2 - 1 Pittsburgh Penguins
Expected: 2.8 - 3.4
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