Chicago Blackhawks at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2025-01-28 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 1 - 4 Chicago Blackhawks

🚨 Upset Loss (70% underdog)

Win Probability

TBL: 69.7%

CHI: 30.3%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.48

CHI: 2.81

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 48%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • TBL at home vs CHI: 0-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-23	CHI 1 - 2 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-10-23	TBL 2 - 3 CHI	CHI	CHI
2025-01-28	TBL 1 - 4 CHI	CHI	TBL
2025-01-24	CHI 3 - 4 TBL	TBL	TBL
2023-11-16	CHI 2 - 4 TBL	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	14	1	1.61
1	CHI	10	0	0.52
2	TBL	16	0	1.08
2	CHI	16	1	1.14
3	TBL	20	2	1.58
3	CHI	9	4	1.88

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 69.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 1 - 4 Chicago Blackhawks

Expected: 3.5 - 2.8