Washington Capitals at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions

2025-01-28 • Scotiabank Saddledome

Calgary Flames 1 - 3 Washington Capitals

🚨 Upset Loss (54% underdog)

Win Probability

CGY: 53.8%

WSH: 46.2%

Expected Goals

CGY: 3.32

WSH: 2.89

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 42%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • CGY at home vs WSH: 0-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-09	WSH 7 - 3 CGY	WSH	WSH
2026-01-23	CGY 1 - 3 WSH	WSH	WSH
2025-02-25	WSH 1 - 3 CGY	CGY	CGY
2025-01-28	CGY 1 - 3 WSH	WSH	CGY
2024-03-18	CGY 2 - 5 WSH	WSH	WSH

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CGY	17	0	0.88
1	WSH	8	0	0.45
2	CGY	16	0	0.66
2	WSH	17	0	1.21
3	CGY	14	0	0.96
3	WSH	12	2	1.70

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Calgary Flames 1 - 3 Washington Capitals

Expected: 3.3 - 2.9