Montreal Canadiens at San Jose Sharks NHL Predictions

2025-02-04 • SAP Center at San Jose

San Jose Sharks 3 - 4 Montreal Canadiens

🚨 Upset Loss (51% underdog)

Win Probability

SJS: 51.0%

MTL: 49.0%

Expected Goals

SJS: 3.04

MTL: 2.93

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 45%

SJS

Alexandar Georgiev - 15-26-4 | 0.875 SV% | 3.71 GAA

MTL

Samuel Montembeault - 6-6-1 | 0.863 SV% | 3.52 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
SJS	Alexandar Georgiev	20	16	4	80.0%	3.54	3	-0.46
MTL	Samuel Montembeault	30	27	3	90.0%	3.29	2	0.29

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • SJS at home vs MTL: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-14	MTL 2 - 4 SJS	SJS	MTL
2026-03-03	SJS 7 - 5 MTL	SJS	MTL
2025-02-27	MTL 4 - 3 SJS	MTL	MTL
2025-02-04	SJS 3 - 4 MTL	MTL	SJS
2024-01-11	MTL 2 - 3 SJS	SJS	MTL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	SJS	15	1	1.08
1	MTL	15	1	1.10
2	SJS	15	1	1.12
2	MTL	14	0	0.75
3	SJS	17	0	1.10
3	MTL	11	2	1.69

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

San Jose Sharks 3 - 4 Montreal Canadiens

Expected: 3.0 - 2.9