Montreal Canadiens at San Jose Sharks NHL Predictions
2025-02-04 • SAP Center at San Jose
San Jose Sharks 3 - 4 Montreal Canadiens
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
SJS: 46.9%
MTL: 53.1%
Expected Goals
SJS: 3.04
MTL: 2.93
Total Goals
Median: 5.7
Over 5.5: 53%
Over 6.5: 39%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
SJS
Yaroslav Askarov - 21-20-4 | 0.883 SV% | 3.63 GAA
MTL
Jakub Dobes - 29-10-4 | 0.901 SV% | 2.78 GAA
| Stat | SJS | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.896 | 0.889 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.862 | 0.891 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.861 | 0.812 |
| GAA | 3.36 | 3.01 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • SJS at home vs MTL: 1-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-14 | MTL 2 - 4 SJS | SJS | MTL |
| 2026-03-03 | SJS 7 - 5 MTL | SJS | MTL |
| 2025-02-27 | MTL 4 - 3 SJS | MTL | MTL |
| 2025-02-04 | SJS 3 - 4 MTL | MTL | MTL |
| 2024-01-11 | MTL 2 - 3 SJS | SJS | MTL |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 05:52 | SJS | Goal |
| 2 | 00:52 | SJS | Goal |
| 2 | 04:53 | MTL | Goal |
| 2 | 14:51 | SJS | Goal |
| 3 | 02:40 | MTL | Goal |
| 3 | 10:27 | SJS | Goal |
| 3 | 15:56 | MTL | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
✅ Correct
Confidence: 53.1%
Total Goals
Actual: 7.0
Expected: 6.0
Score Breakdown
San Jose Sharks 3 - 4 Montreal Canadiens
Expected: 3.0 - 2.9
Like this analysis? Get it daily.
Short, data-driven emails. Unsubscribe any time.