San Jose Sharks at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2025-02-27 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 4 - 3 San Jose Sharks

Win Probability

MTL: 61.4%

SJS: 38.6%

Expected Goals

MTL: 3.58

SJS: 2.90

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 46%

MTL

Samuel Montembeault - 6-6-1 | 0.863 SV% | 3.52 GAA

SJS

Alexandar Georgiev - 15-26-4 | 0.875 SV% | 3.71 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MTL	Samuel Montembeault	26	23	3	88.5%	3.58	2	0.58
SJS	Alexandar Georgiev	33	29	4	87.9%	3.10	3	-0.90

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • MTL at home vs SJS: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-14	MTL 2 - 4 SJS	SJS	MTL
2026-03-03	SJS 7 - 5 MTL	SJS	MTL
2025-02-27	MTL 4 - 3 SJS	MTL	MTL
2025-02-04	SJS 3 - 4 MTL	MTL	SJS
2024-01-11	MTL 2 - 3 SJS	SJS	MTL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	14	0	0.72
1	SJS	12	2	1.47
2	MTL	6	1	0.57
2	SJS	17	0	1.17
3	MTL	16	1	1.50
3	SJS	15	0	0.77
4	MTL	2	1	0.31
4	SJS	2	0	0.18

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 61.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Montreal Canadiens 4 - 3 San Jose Sharks

Expected: 3.6 - 2.9