St. Louis Blues at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2025-02-27 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 2 - 5 St. Louis Blues

🚨 Upset Loss (55% underdog)

Win Probability

WSH: 55.3%

STL: 44.7%

Expected Goals

WSH: 3.35

STL: 3.20

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 46%

WSH

Charlie Lindgren - 6-4-2 | 0.887 SV% | 3.07 GAA

STL

Joel Hofer - 8-8-2 | 0.901 SV% | 2.87 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WSH	Charlie Lindgren	19	14	5	73.7%	3.29	3	-1.71
STL	Joel Hofer	18	16	2	88.9%	1.98	0	-0.02

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • WSH at home vs STL: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-24	STL 3 - 0 WSH	STL	STL
2025-11-05	WSH 6 - 1 STL	WSH	WSH
2025-02-27	WSH 2 - 5 STL	STL	WSH
2024-11-09	STL 1 - 8 WSH	WSH	STL
2024-01-20	STL 3 - 0 WSH	STL	STL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	7	0	0.47
1	STL	10	0	0.78
2	WSH	14	0	0.84
2	STL	12	2	1.53
3	WSH	13	0	0.67
3	STL	7	1	0.98

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 55.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

Washington Capitals 2 - 5 St. Louis Blues

Expected: 3.4 - 3.2