Detroit Red Wings at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2025-03-07 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 5 - 2 Detroit Red Wings

Win Probability

WSH: 67.0%

DET: 33.0%

Expected Goals

WSH: 3.26

DET: 2.75

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 45%

WSH

Logan Thompson - 15-11-3 | 0.913 SV% | 2.39 GAA

DET

Cam Talbot - 11-6-3 | 0.888 SV% | 2.99 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WSH	Logan Thompson	19	17	2	89.5%	1.87	2	-0.13
DET	Cam Talbot	28	23	5	82.1%	2.30	2	-2.70

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • WSH at home vs DET: 3-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-29	DET 3 - 4 WSH	WSH	WSH
2025-12-21	DET 3 - 2 WSH	DET	WSH
2025-12-20	WSH 2 - 5 DET	DET	WSH
2025-03-18	WSH 4 - 1 DET	WSH	WSH
2025-03-07	WSH 5 - 2 DET	WSH	WSH

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	12	2	0.84
1	DET	16	2	1.23
2	WSH	14	0	0.61
2	DET	10	0	0.34
3	WSH	15	0	0.84
3	DET	7	0	0.30

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 67.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Washington Capitals 5 - 2 Detroit Red Wings

Expected: 3.3 - 2.7