Edmonton Oilers at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions
2025-03-10 • KeyBank Center
Buffalo Sabres 3 - 2 Edmonton Oilers
🚨 Upset Win (55% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
BUF: 44.6%
EDM: 55.4%
Expected Goals
BUF: 2.73
EDM: 2.66
Total Goals
Median: 4.2
Over 5.5: 33%
Over 6.5: 20%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
BUF
Alex Lyon - 20-10-4 | 0.906 SV% | 2.77 GAA
EDM
Tristan Jarry - 18-9-3 | 0.882 SV% | 3.32 GAA
| Stat | BUF | EDM |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.906 | 0.906 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.847 | 0.837 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.875 | 0.935 |
| GAA | 2.82 | 2.73 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • BUF at home vs EDM: 3-0
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-09 | EDM 3 - 4 BUF | BUF | EDM |
| 2025-11-17 | BUF 5 - 1 EDM | BUF | EDM |
| 2025-03-10 | BUF 3 - 2 EDM | BUF | EDM |
| 2025-01-25 | EDM 3 - 2 BUF | EDM | EDM |
| 2024-03-21 | EDM 8 - 3 BUF | EDM | EDM |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 13:28 | BUF | Goal |
| 2 | 01:35 | BUF | Goal |
| 2 | 03:52 | BUF | Goal |
| 2 | 09:12 | BUF | Goal |
| 3 | 03:20 | BUF | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 55.4%
Total Goals
Actual: 5.0
Expected: 5.4
Score Breakdown
Buffalo Sabres 3 - 2 Edmonton Oilers
Expected: 2.7 - 2.7
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