Colorado Avalanche at Minnesota Wild NHL Predictions

2025-03-11 • Xcel Energy Center

Minnesota Wild 2 - 1 Colorado Avalanche

Win Probability

MIN: 50.1%

COL: 49.9%

Expected Goals

MIN: 3.02

COL: 3.12

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 46%

MIN

Filip Gustavsson - 13-8-4 | 0.912 SV% | 2.47 GAA

COL

Mackenzie Blackwood - 13-1-1 | 0.924 SV% | 2.07 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MIN	Filip Gustavsson	29	28	1	96.6%	2.59	0	1.59
COL	Mackenzie Blackwood	25	22	3	88.0%	2.97	2	-0.03

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 76% • MIN at home vs COL: 3-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-05-13	COL 4 - 3 MIN	COL	COL
2026-05-11	MIN 2 - 5 COL	COL	COL
2026-05-09	MIN 5 - 1 COL	MIN	COL
2026-05-05	COL 5 - 2 MIN	COL	COL
2026-05-03	COL 9 - 6 MIN	COL	COL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MIN	7	0	0.41
1	COL	12	0	0.49
2	MIN	9	0	0.36
2	COL	16	0	0.97
3	MIN	10	0	0.60
3	COL	15	0	0.75
4	MIN	1	0	0.03
4	COL	3	0	0.23
5	MIN	2	2	1.58
5	COL	2	0	0.15

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 50.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Minnesota Wild 2 - 1 Colorado Avalanche

Expected: 3.0 - 3.1