Vegas Golden Knights at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2025-03-15 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 4 - 3 Vegas Golden Knights

🚨 Upset Win (55% underdog)

Win Probability

BUF: 45.3%

VGK: 54.7%

Expected Goals

BUF: 3.16

VGK: 3.25

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 42%

BUF

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen - 7-5-1 | 0.903 SV% | 2.46 GAA

VGK

Adin Hill - 1-0-2 | 0.888 SV% | 2.73 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BUF	Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen	22	18	4	81.8%	2.86	3	-1.14
VGK	Adin Hill	39	34	5	87.2%	3.95	2	-1.05

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 17% • BUF at home vs VGK: 3-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-17	VGK 0 - 2 BUF	BUF	VGK
2026-03-03	BUF 3 - 2 VGK	BUF	VGK
2025-03-15	BUF 4 - 3 VGK	BUF	VGK
2025-01-04	VGK 3 - 1 BUF	VGK	VGK
2024-03-02	BUF 7 - 2 VGK	BUF	VGK

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	17	0	0.79
1	VGK	10	0	0.50
2	BUF	16	0	0.66
2	VGK	8	1	0.49
3	BUF	18	0	0.73
3	VGK	12	1	1.04
4	BUF	3	0	0.25
4	VGK	4	0	0.30
5	BUF	3	2	1.52
5	VGK	3	1	0.53

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Buffalo Sabres 4 - 3 Vegas Golden Knights

Expected: 3.2 - 3.3