Washington Capitals at San Jose Sharks NHL Predictions

2025-03-15 • SAP Center at San Jose

San Jose Sharks 1 - 5 Washington Capitals

Win Probability

SJS: 45.3%

WSH: 54.7%

Expected Goals

SJS: 2.98

WSH: 3.26

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 43%

SJS

Alexandar Georgiev - 15-26-4 | 0.875 SV% | 3.71 GAA

WSH

Logan Thompson - 15-11-3 | 0.913 SV% | 2.39 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
SJS	Alexandar Georgiev	28	23	5	82.1%	2.81	2	-2.19
WSH	Logan Thompson	20	19	1	95.0%	1.90	0	0.90

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • SJS at home vs WSH: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-15	WSH 2 - 3 SJS	SJS	WSH
2025-12-03	SJS 1 - 7 WSH	WSH	WSH
2025-03-15	SJS 1 - 5 WSH	WSH	WSH
2024-12-03	WSH 1 - 2 SJS	SJS	WSH
2023-11-27	SJS 2 - 1 WSH	SJS	WSH

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	SJS	3	0	0.32
1	WSH	20	2	2.01
2	SJS	12	0	0.73
2	WSH	10	0	0.42
3	SJS	13	0	0.84
3	WSH	9	0	0.38

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 54.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

San Jose Sharks 1 - 5 Washington Capitals

Expected: 3.0 - 3.3