Florida Panthers at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2025-03-15 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 3 - 1 Florida Panthers

Win Probability

MTL: 51.0%

FLA: 49.0%

Expected Goals

MTL: 3.11

FLA: 2.91

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 54%

Over 6.5: 41%

MTL

Samuel Montembeault - 6-6-1 | 0.863 SV% | 3.52 GAA

FLA

Sergei Bobrovsky - 17-9-1 | 0.888 SV% | 2.80 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MTL	Samuel Montembeault	22	21	1	95.5%	2.99	4	1.99
FLA	Sergei Bobrovsky	15	12	3	80.0%	2.44	2	-0.56

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 55% • MTL at home vs FLA: 5-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-07	MTL 4 - 3 FLA	MTL	MTL
2026-01-08	MTL 6 - 2 FLA	MTL	FLA
2025-12-30	FLA 2 - 3 MTL	MTL	FLA
2025-04-01	MTL 3 - 2 FLA	MTL	FLA
2025-03-30	FLA 2 - 4 MTL	MTL	FLA

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	14	0	0.96
1	FLA	6	1	0.33
2	MTL	13	1	0.82
2	FLA	15	0	0.78
3	MTL	7	1	0.66
3	FLA	24	3	1.89

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 51.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Montreal Canadiens 3 - 1 Florida Panthers

Expected: 3.1 - 2.9