Florida Panthers at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2025-04-30 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 3 - 6 Florida Panthers

🚨 Upset Loss (50% underdog)

Win Probability

TBL: 50.3%

FLA: 49.7%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.18

FLA: 2.86

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 44%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 52% • TBL at home vs FLA: 3-8

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-05	TBL 6 - 1 FLA	TBL	TBL
2025-12-27	FLA 2 - 4 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-12-15	TBL 2 - 5 FLA	FLA	TBL
2025-11-15	FLA 1 - 3 TBL	TBL	FLA
2025-04-30	TBL 3 - 6 FLA	FLA	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	13	1	1.15
1	FLA	19	2	2.00
2	TBL	15	1	1.23
2	FLA	10	0	0.40
3	TBL	11	1	0.58
3	FLA	9	1	1.03

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 3 - 6 Florida Panthers

Expected: 3.2 - 2.9