Florida Panthers at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2025-05-14 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 1 - 6 Florida Panthers

Win Probability

TOR: 43.0%

FLA: 57.0%

Expected Goals

TOR: 2.75

FLA: 3.25

Total Goals

Median: 5.6

Over 5.5: 52%

Over 6.5: 39%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 63% • TOR at home vs FLA: 6-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-11	TOR 2 - 6 FLA	FLA	TOR
2026-02-26	FLA 5 - 1 TOR	FLA	FLA
2026-01-06	TOR 4 - 1 FLA	TOR	FLA
2025-12-02	FLA 1 - 4 TOR	TOR	FLA
2025-05-18	TOR 1 - 6 FLA	FLA	FLA

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	9	0	0.79
1	FLA	19	0	0.82
2	TOR	17	0	0.88
2	FLA	17	2	0.88
3	TOR	18	0	0.67
3	FLA	13	1	1.22

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 57.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 1 - 6 Florida Panthers

Expected: 2.8 - 3.3