Winnipeg Jets at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2025-05-17 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 2 - 1 Winnipeg Jets

🚨 Upset Win (50% underdog)

Win Probability

DAL: 50.0%

WPG: 50.0%

Expected Goals

DAL: 2.49

WPG: 3.22

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 52%

Over 6.5: 37%

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

WPG

Connor Hellebuyck - 9-10-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.51 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DAL	Jake Oettinger	23	22	1	95.7%	2.18	1	1.18
WPG	Connor Hellebuyck	20	18	2	90.0%	3.39	2	1.39

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 61% • DAL at home vs WPG: 7-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-02	DAL 3 - 0 WPG	DAL	DAL
2026-02-02	DAL 4 - 3 WPG	DAL	DAL
2025-12-09	WPG 3 - 4 DAL	DAL	DAL
2025-10-09	WPG 4 - 5 DAL	DAL	DAL
2025-05-17	DAL 2 - 1 WPG	DAL	WPG

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	20	0	1.10
1	WPG	8	0	0.17
2	DAL	12	1	0.77
2	WPG	19	1	1.46
3	DAL	22	1	1.13
3	WPG	8	0	0.55
4	DAL	4	0	0.39
4	WPG	0	0	0.00

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 5.7

Score Breakdown

Dallas Stars 2 - 1 Winnipeg Jets

Expected: 2.5 - 3.2