Montreal Canadiens at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions
2026-05-06 • KeyBank Center
Buffalo Sabres 4 - 2 Montreal Canadiens
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
BUF: 62.4%
MTL: 37.6%
Expected Goals
BUF: 3.45
MTL: 2.82
Total Goals
Median: 6.2
Over 5.5: 61%
Over 6.5: 47%
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 47% • BUF at home vs MTL: 2-8
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-18 | BUF 2 - 3 MTL | MTL | BUF |
| 2026-05-16 | MTL 3 - 8 BUF | BUF | BUF |
| 2026-05-14 | BUF 3 - 6 MTL | MTL | BUF |
| 2026-05-12 | MTL 2 - 3 BUF | BUF | BUF |
| 2026-05-10 | MTL 6 - 2 BUF | MTL | MTL |
Shot Quality by Period
| Period | Team | Shots | High Danger | xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BUF | 9 | 1 | 0.95 |
| 1 | MTL | 14 | 1 | 1.24 |
| 2 | BUF | 16 | 0 | 1.23 |
| 2 | MTL | 10 | 0 | 0.46 |
| 3 | BUF | 6 | 0 | 0.52 |
| 3 | MTL | 17 | 0 | 1.02 |
Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
✅ Correct
Confidence: 62.4%
Total Goals
Actual: 6.0
Expected: 6.3
Score Breakdown
Buffalo Sabres 4 - 2 Montreal Canadiens
Expected: 3.5 - 2.8
Get NHL forecasts in your inbox
Occasional emails with NHL forecasts, analysis, and model updates.