Montreal Canadiens at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2026-05-08 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 1 - 5 Montreal Canadiens

🚨 Upset Loss (57% underdog)

Win Probability

BUF: 57.2%

MTL: 42.8%

Expected Goals

BUF: 3.13

MTL: 3.00

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 47%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 47% • BUF at home vs MTL: 2-8

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-05-18	BUF 2 - 3 MTL	MTL	BUF
2026-05-16	MTL 3 - 8 BUF	BUF	BUF
2026-05-14	BUF 3 - 6 MTL	MTL	BUF
2026-05-12	MTL 2 - 3 BUF	BUF	BUF
2026-05-10	MTL 6 - 2 BUF	MTL	MTL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	13	0	0.67
1	MTL	20	3	1.80
2	BUF	15	0	0.86
2	MTL	13	2	1.32
3	BUF	16	0	0.76
3	MTL	12	1	1.28

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 57.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Buffalo Sabres 1 - 5 Montreal Canadiens

Expected: 3.1 - 3.0