Montreal Canadiens at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2026-05-08 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 1 - 5 Montreal Canadiens

🚨 Upset Loss (59% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

BUF: 59.5%

MTL: 40.5%

Expected Goals

BUF: 3.17

MTL: 2.36

Total Goals

Median: 4.3

Over 5.5: 32%

Over 6.5: 18%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

BUF

Alex Lyon - 10-6-3 | 0.906 SV% | 2.82 GAA

MTL

Jakub Dobes - 13-5-3 | 0.889 SV% | 3.01 GAA

Stat	BUF	MTL
Season SV%	0.906	0.889
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.82	3.01

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BUF	Alex Lyon	28	23	5	82.1%	4.41	6	-0.59
MTL	Jakub Dobes	29	28	1	96.6%	2.29	0	1.29

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 37% • BUF at home vs MTL: 2-8

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-05-18	BUF 2 - 3 MTL	MTL	BUF
2026-05-16	MTL 3 - 8 BUF	BUF	BUF
2026-05-14	BUF 3 - 6 MTL	MTL	BUF
2026-05-12	MTL 2 - 3 BUF	BUF	BUF
2026-05-10	MTL 6 - 2 BUF	MTL	BUF

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	13	0	0.67
1	MTL	20	3	1.80
2	BUF	15	0	0.86
2	MTL	13	2	1.32
3	BUF	16	0	0.76
3	MTL	12	1	1.28

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 59.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 5.5

Score Breakdown