Buffalo Sabres at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2026-05-10 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 6 - 2 Buffalo Sabres

Win Probability

MTL: 50.6%

BUF: 49.4%

Expected Goals

MTL: 3.02

BUF: 3.03

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 44%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 47% • MTL at home vs BUF: 4-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-05-18	BUF 2 - 3 MTL	MTL	BUF
2026-05-16	MTL 3 - 8 BUF	BUF	BUF
2026-05-14	BUF 3 - 6 MTL	MTL	BUF
2026-05-12	MTL 2 - 3 BUF	BUF	BUF
2026-05-10	MTL 6 - 2 BUF	MTL	MTL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	16	2	1.59
1	BUF	12	2	1.35
2	MTL	20	3	2.23
2	BUF	15	0	0.76
3	MTL	10	2	1.85
3	BUF	16	0	1.42

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 50.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Montreal Canadiens 6 - 2 Buffalo Sabres

Expected: 3.0 - 3.0