Buffalo Sabres at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2026-05-12 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 2 - 3 Buffalo Sabres

Win Probability

MTL: 40.5%

BUF: 59.5%

Expected Goals

MTL: 2.87

BUF: 3.15

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 42%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 47% • MTL at home vs BUF: 4-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-05-18	BUF 2 - 3 MTL	MTL	BUF
2026-05-16	MTL 3 - 8 BUF	BUF	BUF
2026-05-14	BUF 3 - 6 MTL	MTL	BUF
2026-05-12	MTL 2 - 3 BUF	BUF	BUF
2026-05-10	MTL 6 - 2 BUF	MTL	MTL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	11	2	1.09
1	BUF	21	1	1.56
2	MTL	15	1	1.21
2	BUF	10	0	0.97
3	MTL	19	0	1.14
3	BUF	7	0	0.92

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 59.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Montreal Canadiens 2 - 3 Buffalo Sabres

Expected: 2.9 - 3.2