Montreal Canadiens at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2026-05-14 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 3 - 6 Montreal Canadiens

🚨 Upset Loss (62% underdog)

Win Probability

BUF: 61.7%

MTL: 38.3%

Expected Goals

BUF: 3.42

MTL: 3.01

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 50%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 47% • BUF at home vs MTL: 2-8

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-05-18	BUF 2 - 3 MTL	MTL	BUF
2026-05-16	MTL 3 - 8 BUF	BUF	BUF
2026-05-14	BUF 3 - 6 MTL	MTL	BUF
2026-05-12	MTL 2 - 3 BUF	BUF	BUF
2026-05-10	MTL 6 - 2 BUF	MTL	MTL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	14	0	0.81
1	MTL	17	1	0.80
2	BUF	13	0	0.80
2	MTL	17	1	1.98
3	BUF	30	2	2.16
3	MTL	5	1	0.67

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 61.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Buffalo Sabres 3 - 6 Montreal Canadiens

Expected: 3.4 - 3.0