Montreal Canadiens at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2026-05-14 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 3 - 6 Montreal Canadiens

🚨 Upset Loss (63% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

BUF: 63.4%

MTL: 36.6%

Expected Goals

BUF: 3.36

MTL: 2.02

Total Goals

Median: 4.5

Over 5.5: 33%

Over 6.5: 20%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

BUF

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen - 7-5-1 | 0.903 SV% | 2.46 GAA

MTL

Jakub Dobes - 13-5-3 | 0.889 SV% | 3.01 GAA

Stat	BUF	MTL
Season SV%	0.903	0.889
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.46	3.01

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BUF	Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen	26	20	6	76.9%	3.45	3	-2.55
MTL	Jakub Dobes	36	33	3	91.7%	3.76	2	0.76

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 37% • BUF at home vs MTL: 2-8

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-05-18	BUF 2 - 3 MTL	MTL	BUF
2026-05-16	MTL 3 - 8 BUF	BUF	BUF
2026-05-14	BUF 3 - 6 MTL	MTL	BUF
2026-05-12	MTL 2 - 3 BUF	BUF	BUF
2026-05-10	MTL 6 - 2 BUF	MTL	BUF

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	14	0	0.81
1	MTL	17	1	0.80
2	BUF	13	0	0.80
2	MTL	17	1	1.98
3	BUF	30	2	2.16
3	MTL	5	1	0.67

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 63.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 5.4

Score Breakdown