Buffalo Sabres at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2026-05-16 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 3 - 8 Buffalo Sabres

Win Probability

MTL: 39.7%

BUF: 60.3%

Expected Goals

MTL: 3.04

BUF: 3.47

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 48%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 47% • MTL at home vs BUF: 4-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-05-18	BUF 2 - 3 MTL	MTL	BUF
2026-05-16	MTL 3 - 8 BUF	BUF	BUF
2026-05-14	BUF 3 - 6 MTL	MTL	BUF
2026-05-12	MTL 2 - 3 BUF	BUF	BUF
2026-05-10	MTL 6 - 2 BUF	MTL	MTL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	7	0	0.51
1	BUF	20	3	1.82
2	MTL	15	0	1.14
2	BUF	20	2	2.05
3	MTL	13	1	0.77
3	BUF	10	1	1.26

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 60.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 11.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Montreal Canadiens 3 - 8 Buffalo Sabres

Expected: 3.0 - 3.5