Buffalo Sabres at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2026-05-16 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 3 - 8 Buffalo Sabres

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

MTL: 40.6%

BUF: 59.4%

Expected Goals

MTL: 2.86

BUF: 3.30

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 42%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

MTL

Jakub Dobes - 13-5-3 | 0.889 SV% | 3.01 GAA

BUF

Alex Lyon - 10-6-3 | 0.906 SV% | 2.82 GAA

Stat	MTL	BUF
Season SV%	0.889	0.906
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.01	2.82

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MTL	Jakub Dobes	36	28	8	77.8%	5.14	6	-2.86
BUF	Alex Lyon	22	19	3	86.4%	2.42	1	-0.58

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 37% • MTL at home vs BUF: 4-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-05-18	BUF 2 - 3 MTL	MTL	BUF
2026-05-16	MTL 3 - 8 BUF	BUF	BUF
2026-05-14	BUF 3 - 6 MTL	MTL	BUF
2026-05-12	MTL 2 - 3 BUF	BUF	BUF
2026-05-10	MTL 6 - 2 BUF	MTL	BUF

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	7	0	0.51
1	BUF	20	3	1.82
2	MTL	15	0	1.14
2	BUF	20	2	2.05
3	MTL	13	1	0.77
3	BUF	10	1	1.26

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 59.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 11.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown