Montreal Canadiens at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2026-05-18 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 2 - 3 Montreal Canadiens (OT)

🚨 Upset Loss (66% underdog)

Win Probability

BUF: 65.8%

MTL: 34.2%

Expected Goals

BUF: 3.52

MTL: 2.95

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 46%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 47% • BUF at home vs MTL: 2-8

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-05-18	BUF 2 - 3 MTL	MTL	BUF
2026-05-16	MTL 3 - 8 BUF	BUF	BUF
2026-05-14	BUF 3 - 6 MTL	MTL	BUF
2026-05-12	MTL 2 - 3 BUF	BUF	BUF
2026-05-10	MTL 6 - 2 BUF	MTL	MTL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	15	1	0.98
1	MTL	14	0	1.16
2	BUF	25	2	2.14
2	MTL	13	0	0.74
3	BUF	15	0	0.88
3	MTL	13	0	0.70
4	BUF	9	0	0.52
4	MTL	8	0	0.27

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 65.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Buffalo Sabres 2 - 3 Montreal Canadiens

Expected: 3.5 - 2.9