Philadelphia Flyers at Carolina Hurricanes NHL Predictions

2026-05-02 • Lenovo Center

Carolina Hurricanes 3 - 0 Philadelphia Flyers

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

CAR: 72.9%

PHI: 27.1%

Expected Goals

CAR: 3.08

PHI: 2.31

Total Goals

Median: 4.4

Over 5.5: 35%

Over 6.5: 24%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

CAR

Frederik Andersen - 5-9-2 | 0.865 SV% | 3.38 GAA

PHI

Dan Vladar - 14-6-3 | 0.910 SV% | 2.40 GAA

Stat	CAR	PHI
Season SV%	0.865	0.910
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.38	2.40

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CAR	Frederik Andersen	19	19	0	100.0%	2.05	2	2.05
PHI	Dan Vladar	23	20	3	87.0%	2.59	3	-0.41

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 80% • CAR at home vs PHI: 6-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-05-09	PHI 2 - 3 CAR	CAR	CAR
2026-05-07	PHI 1 - 4 CAR	CAR	CAR
2026-05-04	CAR 3 - 2 PHI	CAR	CAR
2026-05-02	CAR 3 - 0 PHI	CAR	CAR
2026-04-13	PHI 3 - 2 CAR	PHI	CAR

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CAR	16	1	0.98
1	PHI	7	0	0.40
2	CAR	13	1	1.03
2	PHI	7	1	0.54
3	CAR	6	1	0.58
3	PHI	16	1	1.11

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 72.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 5.4

Score Breakdown