Philadelphia Flyers at Carolina Hurricanes NHL Predictions

2026-05-04 • Lenovo Center

Carolina Hurricanes 3 - 2 Philadelphia Flyers (OT)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

CAR: 68.1%

PHI: 31.9%

Expected Goals

CAR: 3.56

PHI: 2.23

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 53%

Over 6.5: 39%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

CAR

Frederik Andersen - 5-9-2 | 0.865 SV% | 3.38 GAA

PHI

Dan Vladar - 14-6-3 | 0.910 SV% | 2.40 GAA

Stat	CAR	PHI
Season SV%	0.865	0.910
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.38	2.40

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CAR	Frederik Andersen	36	34	2	94.4%	3.79	4	1.79
PHI	Dan Vladar	43	40	3	93.0%	4.45	3	1.45

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 80% • CAR at home vs PHI: 6-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-05-09	PHI 2 - 3 CAR	CAR	CAR
2026-05-07	PHI 1 - 4 CAR	CAR	CAR
2026-05-04	CAR 3 - 2 PHI	CAR	CAR
2026-05-02	CAR 3 - 0 PHI	CAR	CAR
2026-04-13	PHI 3 - 2 CAR	PHI	CAR

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CAR	16	0	0.99
1	PHI	7	2	1.27
2	CAR	23	2	1.79
2	PHI	12	1	0.65
3	CAR	11	1	0.66
3	PHI	8	0	0.44
4	CAR	14	0	1.01
4	PHI	19	1	1.43

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 68.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 5.8

Score Breakdown

Carolina Hurricanes 3 - 2 Philadelphia Flyers

Expected: 3.6 - 2.2