Carolina Hurricanes at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions

2026-05-09 • Xfinity Mobile Arena

Philadelphia Flyers 2 - 3 Carolina Hurricanes (OT)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

PHI: 44.0%

CAR: 56.0%

Expected Goals

PHI: 3.51

CAR: 2.90

Total Goals

Median: 7.2

Over 5.5: 73%

Over 6.5: 59%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

PHI

Dan Vladar - 14-6-3 | 0.910 SV% | 2.40 GAA

CAR

Frederik Andersen - 5-9-2 | 0.865 SV% | 3.38 GAA

Stat	PHI	CAR
Season SV%	0.910	0.865
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.40	3.38

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PHI	Dan Vladar	40	37	3	92.5%	3.21	0	0.21
CAR	Frederik Andersen	17	15	2	88.2%	2.78	1	0.78

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 80% • PHI at home vs CAR: 1-7

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-05-09	PHI 2 - 3 CAR	CAR	CAR
2026-05-07	PHI 1 - 4 CAR	CAR	CAR
2026-05-04	CAR 3 - 2 PHI	CAR	CAR
2026-05-02	CAR 3 - 0 PHI	CAR	CAR
2026-04-13	PHI 3 - 2 CAR	PHI	CAR

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PHI	11	0	0.87
1	CAR	11	0	0.89
2	PHI	9	0	0.97
2	CAR	22	0	1.15
3	PHI	9	1	0.94
3	CAR	18	0	0.87
4	PHI	2	0	0.00
4	CAR	7	0	0.30

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 56.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Philadelphia Flyers 2 - 3 Carolina Hurricanes

Expected: 3.5 - 2.9