Minnesota Wild at Colorado Avalanche NHL Predictions

2026-05-03 • Ball Arena

Colorado Avalanche 9 - 6 Minnesota Wild

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

COL: 80.3%

MIN: 19.7%

Expected Goals

COL: 3.70

MIN: 2.32

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 42%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

COL

Scott Wedgewood - 17-1-4 | 0.919 SV% | 2.13 GAA

MIN

Jesper Wallstedt - 11-2-3 | 0.928 SV% | 2.21 GAA

Stat	COL	MIN
Season SV%	0.919	0.928
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.13	2.21

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
COL	Scott Wedgewood	36	30	6	83.3%	2.91	1	-3.09
MIN	Jesper Wallstedt	43	34	9	79.1%	4.30	1	-4.70

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 71% • COL at home vs MIN: 7-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-05-13	COL 4 - 3 MIN	COL	COL
2026-05-11	MIN 2 - 5 COL	COL	COL
2026-05-09	MIN 5 - 1 COL	MIN	COL
2026-05-05	COL 5 - 2 MIN	COL	COL
2026-05-03	COL 9 - 6 MIN	COL	COL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	COL	24	0	1.35
1	MIN	13	0	0.64
2	COL	15	0	0.89
2	MIN	20	1	1.69
3	COL	17	1	2.06
3	MIN	16	0	0.59

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 80.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 15.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown