Minnesota Wild at Colorado Avalanche NHL Predictions

2026-05-05 • Ball Arena

Colorado Avalanche 5 - 2 Minnesota Wild

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

COL: 72.8%

MIN: 27.2%

Expected Goals

COL: 3.70

MIN: 2.33

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 41%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

COL

Scott Wedgewood - 17-1-4 | 0.919 SV% | 2.13 GAA

MIN

Filip Gustavsson - 13-8-4 | 0.912 SV% | 2.47 GAA

Stat	COL	MIN
Season SV%	0.919	0.912
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.13	2.47

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
COL	Scott Wedgewood	31	29	2	93.5%	3.41	2	1.41
MIN	Filip Gustavsson	23	18	5	78.3%	3.07	2	-1.93

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 71% • COL at home vs MIN: 7-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-05-13	COL 4 - 3 MIN	COL	COL
2026-05-11	MIN 2 - 5 COL	COL	COL
2026-05-09	MIN 5 - 1 COL	MIN	COL
2026-05-05	COL 5 - 2 MIN	COL	COL
2026-05-03	COL 9 - 6 MIN	COL	COL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	COL	8	1	0.56
1	MIN	19	2	1.63
2	COL	13	0	0.89
2	MIN	15	0	0.59
3	COL	14	1	1.62
3	MIN	17	0	1.19

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 72.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown