Colorado Avalanche at Minnesota Wild NHL Predictions

2026-05-09 • Grand Casino Arena

Minnesota Wild 5 - 1 Colorado Avalanche

🚨 Upset Win (60% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

MIN: 40.1%

COL: 59.9%

Expected Goals

MIN: 2.68

COL: 3.74

Total Goals

Median: 6.9

Over 5.5: 72%

Over 6.5: 59%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

MIN

Jesper Wallstedt - 11-2-3 | 0.928 SV% | 2.21 GAA

COL

Scott Wedgewood - 17-1-4 | 0.919 SV% | 2.13 GAA

Stat	MIN	COL
Season SV%	0.928	0.919
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.21	2.13

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MIN	Jesper Wallstedt	36	35	1	97.2%	3.21	1	2.21
COL	Scott Wedgewood	26	21	5	80.8%	4.32	4	-0.68

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 71% • MIN at home vs COL: 3-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-05-13	COL 4 - 3 MIN	COL	COL
2026-05-11	MIN 2 - 5 COL	COL	COL
2026-05-09	MIN 5 - 1 COL	MIN	COL
2026-05-05	COL 5 - 2 MIN	COL	COL
2026-05-03	COL 9 - 6 MIN	COL	COL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MIN	18	0	0.85
1	COL	14	0	0.77
2	MIN	10	1	0.97
2	COL	19	1	0.87
3	MIN	18	3	2.51
3	COL	26	0	1.57

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 59.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown