Colorado Avalanche at Minnesota Wild NHL Predictions

2026-05-11 • Grand Casino Arena

Minnesota Wild 2 - 5 Colorado Avalanche

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

MIN: 31.8%

COL: 68.2%

Expected Goals

MIN: 2.88

COL: 3.45

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 72%

Over 6.5: 57%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

MIN

Jesper Wallstedt - 11-2-3 | 0.928 SV% | 2.21 GAA

COL

Mackenzie Blackwood - 13-1-1 | 0.924 SV% | 2.07 GAA

Stat	MIN	COL
Season SV%	0.928	0.924
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.21	2.07

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MIN	Jesper Wallstedt	34	29	5	85.3%	5.79	7	0.79
COL	Mackenzie Blackwood	21	19	2	90.5%	2.60	3	0.60

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 71% • MIN at home vs COL: 3-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-05-13	COL 4 - 3 MIN	COL	COL
2026-05-11	MIN 2 - 5 COL	COL	COL
2026-05-09	MIN 5 - 1 COL	MIN	COL
2026-05-05	COL 5 - 2 MIN	COL	COL
2026-05-03	COL 9 - 6 MIN	COL	COL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MIN	6	0	0.34
1	COL	15	1	0.79
2	MIN	14	1	1.12
2	COL	15	2	1.66
3	MIN	17	2	1.13
3	COL	24	4	3.34

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 68.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown