Minnesota Wild at Colorado Avalanche NHL Predictions

2026-05-13 • Ball Arena

Colorado Avalanche 4 - 3 Minnesota Wild (OT)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

COL: 70.3%

MIN: 29.7%

Expected Goals

COL: 3.72

MIN: 2.41

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 43%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

COL

Mackenzie Blackwood - 13-1-1 | 0.924 SV% | 2.07 GAA

MIN

Jesper Wallstedt - 11-2-3 | 0.928 SV% | 2.21 GAA

Stat	COL	MIN
Season SV%	0.924	0.928
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.07	2.21

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
COL	Mackenzie Blackwood	20	17	3	85.0%	2.05	2	-0.95
MIN	Jesper Wallstedt	34	30	4	88.2%	3.42	1	-0.58

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 71% • COL at home vs MIN: 7-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-05-13	COL 4 - 3 MIN	COL	COL
2026-05-11	MIN 2 - 5 COL	COL	COL
2026-05-09	MIN 5 - 1 COL	MIN	COL
2026-05-05	COL 5 - 2 MIN	COL	COL
2026-05-03	COL 9 - 6 MIN	COL	COL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	COL	14	1	0.89
1	MIN	21	2	1.65
2	COL	23	0	1.34
2	MIN	5	0	0.17
3	COL	21	0	0.85
3	MIN	7	0	0.10
4	COL	6	0	0.35
4	MIN	1	0	0.12

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 70.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Colorado Avalanche 4 - 3 Minnesota Wild

Expected: 3.7 - 2.4