Anaheim Ducks at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2026-05-06 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 1 - 3 Anaheim Ducks

🚨 Upset Loss (62% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

VGK: 61.7%

ANA: 38.3%

Expected Goals

VGK: 3.45

ANA: 2.68

Total Goals

Median: 5.6

Over 5.5: 53%

Over 6.5: 42%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

VGK

Carter Hart - 4-2-3 | 0.883 SV% | 3.18 GAA

ANA

Lukas Dostal - 13-9-2 | 0.888 SV% | 3.15 GAA

Stat	VGK	ANA
Season SV%	0.883	0.888
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.18	3.15

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VGK	Carter Hart	28	25	3	89.3%	3.32	3	0.32
ANA	Lukas Dostal	22	21	1	95.5%	2.15	1	1.15

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 59% • VGK at home vs ANA: 5-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-05-14	ANA 1 - 5 VGK	VGK	ANA
2026-05-12	VGK 3 - 2 ANA	VGK	VGK
2026-05-10	ANA 4 - 3 VGK	ANA	ANA
2026-05-08	ANA 2 - 6 VGK	VGK	ANA
2026-05-06	VGK 1 - 3 ANA	ANA	VGK

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	4	0	0.06
1	ANA	19	0	1.03
2	VGK	13	0	0.73
2	ANA	13	1	1.18
3	VGK	15	1	1.36
3	ANA	9	2	1.11

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 61.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown