Anaheim Ducks at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2026-05-12 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 3 - 2 Anaheim Ducks (OT)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

VGK: 60.3%

ANA: 39.7%

Expected Goals

VGK: 3.33

ANA: 2.54

Total Goals

Median: 5.1

Over 5.5: 46%

Over 6.5: 35%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

VGK

Carter Hart - 4-2-3 | 0.883 SV% | 3.18 GAA

ANA

Lukas Dostal - 13-9-2 | 0.888 SV% | 3.15 GAA

Stat	VGK	ANA
Season SV%	0.883	0.888
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.18	3.15

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VGK	Carter Hart	36	34	2	94.4%	2.69	2	0.69
ANA	Lukas Dostal	28	26	2	92.9%	3.99	5	1.99

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 59% • VGK at home vs ANA: 5-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-05-14	ANA 1 - 5 VGK	VGK	ANA
2026-05-12	VGK 3 - 2 ANA	VGK	VGK
2026-05-10	ANA 4 - 3 VGK	ANA	ANA
2026-05-08	ANA 2 - 6 VGK	VGK	ANA
2026-05-06	VGK 1 - 3 ANA	ANA	VGK

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	21	4	2.30
1	ANA	13	1	0.76
2	VGK	11	0	0.55
2	ANA	20	1	0.97
3	VGK	17	1	1.13
3	ANA	20	0	0.95
4	VGK	1	0	0.01
4	ANA	1	0	0.01

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 60.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown

Vegas Golden Knights 3 - 2 Anaheim Ducks

Expected: 3.3 - 2.5