Montreal Canadiens at Carolina Hurricanes NHL Predictions

2026-05-21 • Lenovo Center

Carolina Hurricanes 2 - 6 Montreal Canadiens

🚨 Upset Loss (80% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

CAR: 80.4%

MTL: 19.6%

Expected Goals

CAR: 4.09

MTL: 3.40

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 45%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

CAR

Frederik Andersen - 5-9-2 | 0.865 SV% | 3.38 GAA

MTL

Jakub Dobes - 13-5-3 | 0.889 SV% | 3.01 GAA

Stat	CAR	MTL
Season SV%	0.865	0.889
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.38	3.01

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CAR	Frederik Andersen	22	16	6	72.7%	3.57	2	-2.43
MTL	Jakub Dobes	28	26	2	92.9%	3.16	1	1.16

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 80% • CAR at home vs MTL: 8-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-05-29	CAR 6 - 1 MTL	CAR	CAR
2026-05-27	MTL 0 - 4 CAR	CAR	CAR
2026-05-25	MTL 2 - 3 CAR	CAR	CAR
2026-05-23	CAR 3 - 2 MTL	CAR	CAR
2026-05-21	CAR 2 - 6 MTL	MTL	CAR

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CAR	20	0	1.01
1	MTL	18	1	1.83
2	CAR	21	1	1.58
2	MTL	8	0	0.41
3	CAR	10	0	0.57
3	MTL	6	1	1.32

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 80.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 7.5

Score Breakdown