Montreal Canadiens at Carolina Hurricanes NHL Predictions

2026-05-23 • Lenovo Center

Carolina Hurricanes 3 - 2 Montreal Canadiens (OT)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

CAR: 81.1%

MTL: 18.9%

Expected Goals

CAR: 4.60

MTL: 2.00

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 48%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

CAR

Frederik Andersen - 5-9-2 | 0.865 SV% | 3.38 GAA

MTL

Jakub Dobes - 13-5-3 | 0.889 SV% | 3.01 GAA

Stat	CAR	MTL
Season SV%	0.865	0.889
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.38	3.01

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CAR	Frederik Andersen	12	10	2	83.3%	1.62	1	-0.38
MTL	Jakub Dobes	26	23	3	88.5%	2.68	0	-0.32

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 57% • CAR at home vs MTL: 5-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-05-29	CAR 6 - 1 MTL	CAR	CAR
2026-05-27	MTL 0 - 4 CAR	CAR	CAR
2026-05-25	MTL 2 - 3 CAR	CAR	CAR
2026-05-23	CAR 3 - 2 MTL	CAR	CAR
2026-05-21	CAR 2 - 6 MTL	MTL	CAR

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CAR	12	0	0.75
1	MTL	2	1	0.29
2	CAR	15	0	0.82
2	MTL	7	0	0.61
3	CAR	18	0	0.97
3	MTL	9	0	0.72
4	CAR	2	0	0.14
4	MTL	0	0	0.00

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 81.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

Carolina Hurricanes 3 - 2 Montreal Canadiens

Expected: 4.6 - 2.0