Carolina Hurricanes at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2026-05-25 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 2 - 3 Carolina Hurricanes (OT)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

MTL: 35.4%

CAR: 64.6%

Expected Goals

MTL: 2.43

CAR: 2.93

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 46%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

MTL

Jakub Dobes - 13-5-3 | 0.889 SV% | 3.01 GAA

CAR

Frederik Andersen - 5-9-2 | 0.865 SV% | 3.38 GAA

Stat	MTL	CAR
Season SV%	0.889	0.865
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.01	3.38

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MTL	Jakub Dobes	38	35	3	92.1%	4.33	5	1.33
CAR	Frederik Andersen	13	11	2	84.6%	1.77	1	-0.23

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 57% • MTL at home vs CAR: 3-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-05-29	CAR 6 - 1 MTL	CAR	CAR
2026-05-27	MTL 0 - 4 CAR	CAR	CAR
2026-05-25	MTL 2 - 3 CAR	CAR	CAR
2026-05-23	CAR 3 - 2 MTL	CAR	CAR
2026-05-21	CAR 2 - 6 MTL	MTL	CAR

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	8	0	0.54
1	CAR	19	2	1.61
2	MTL	10	1	0.58
2	CAR	18	3	1.76
3	MTL	5	0	0.27
3	CAR	10	0	0.48
4	MTL	5	0	0.39
4	CAR	10	0	0.49

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 64.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 5.4

Score Breakdown

Montreal Canadiens 2 - 3 Carolina Hurricanes

Expected: 2.4 - 2.9